The Impact of Population Ageing on State Security
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Security is one of the most important human needs and also a fundamental task facing the state. The provision of security determines the possibility of satisfying other more sublime needs. The state is responsible for the social community, inhabiting a defined territory delimited by national borders, under the jurisdiction of its authorities. The various organs of the state are primarily responsible for the care of the social community, but its members must also be involved in security measures. This is due to the social nature of human beings, for whom the social community is the natural habitat. Those who form it develop certain patterns, norms and rules and guard their observance, creating a system of loyalty and motivation, which induces individuals to engage in joint actions aimed at realising interests of all members of the state community. Among these, the pursuit and protection of state security is fundamental. This requires care for all spheres of state functioning, including the demographic sphere. This is because the concept of the state consists of 3 elements - population, territory and power. This means that demographic processes are important for the existence of the state, for the level of prosperity and the quality of life of its inhabitants. The population potential and the age structure of a state's population are therefore not only conditions for its existence, but also for its sustainable development.
The state needs young, healthy and productive people in order to function normally. However, there are fewer and fewer of these, as a consequence of the decline in the birth replacement rate, which should be 2.15. Replacement birth rate means a state of the population in which the number of births and deaths are equal, resulting in a stable population. It follows that only with such a fertility rate will the number and structure of the population be stable, which means that enough children must be born to balance the number of deaths.[1] In Poland, the fertility rate is 1.12, which indicates that the country is depopulating. Demographic forecasts for the coming decades do not inspire optimism; on the contrary, it should be assumed that these unfavourable trends will only continue.
There is no simple answer to the question of the causes of the ageing of society; this phenomenon is influenced by various factors, such as the level of affluence of society, the promoted family model, women's professional activity, the level of social care and health protection, the education of the population, employment opportunities or state social policy. The consequences of the population ageing process are changes in the structure of consumption, an increase in demand for certain services - especially those related to health protection and care, a decrease in labour force participation, an increase in expenditure on the population security system in the form of various benefits and allowances, a change in the structure of the labour force, the family and households. The increase in the number of elderly people (people of post-working age) and the reduction in the number of people of working age have disastrous consequences, first of all for the economy and the state budget, and consequently for the level of wealth of the state and the quality of life of its inhabitants. Disturbances in the demographic balance are reflected in the size of the budget, the level of economic growth, the amount of funds allocated to research and development, the functioning of the pension system, health protection or the labour market.
In the world, a certain correlation between the prosperity of a state and the openness of its citizens to procreation has long been noted. It has been proven that as a country develops, in terms of GDP per capita, with respect of education, medicine, economics, the aspiration to start a family decreases. States with high fertility rates, on the other hand, tend to be those with low rates of socio-economic development. This means that as a country develops and its citizens become more prosperous, the desire to start a family declines.[2] The priority becomes achieving professional success, personal satisfaction, a comfortable life free from the obligation to raise children and the associated constraints. As a result of this change of priorities, the number of young people in 'welfare states' is regularly decreasing and the number of old people is increasing, which generates very serious problems for the security of the state, including in the area of military security, through which it is possible to maintain the ability to realise national interests and achieve one's own political goals. States with high birth rates rely on the strength of the military resulting from the number of soldiers, which determines its defence potential and combat capability. States with low birth rates, on the other hand, are forced to spend more and more on equipment and become dependent on defence alliances. Of course, wars are not won solely by the number of soldiers but by the strength of the economy, which depends on the number of people able to do the job and on the efficiency with which this potential is used, which ultimately makes victory dependent on the demographic structure. It has rightly been noted that demographic changes can affect state security in various ways. Firstly, they can cause international conflicts by increasing tensions between neighbouring states, three main factors are mainly responsible for such a situation - the difference in population growth rates, disputed territories and the problem of migrants and refugees. These factors can alter the balance of power between states, increasing instability in the region and, consequently, throughout the world. On the other hand, a change in a state's internal policy to one that is less desirable from the population's point of view or even poses a risk to its normal existence, can lead to civil unrest and wars and ethnic conflicts.[3]
A balanced demographic situation of the state, which is reflected in both the number and structure of the population, is a guarantor of its security. An unbalanced population structure translates into the functioning of the state in all its areas. This is because the population not only contributes financially to the state budget, but also forms its administration, armed forces, the entire infrastructure, develops science, thus building the competitiveness and strength of the state in the international environment. This is why 'welfare states', wishing to make up for the shortage of human capital on their territory, create incentives to attract immigrants. However, it should be clearly emphasised that migration in the long term is not the optimal solution to human capital shortages and multicultural states are already facing many challenges that are dynamically turning into threats to their existence. Migration processes are a prime example of how external factors affect internal security and how easily the boundaries between external and internal security blur, leading to the generation of further ones.[4]
It should be added that the potential of older people cannot, however, be completely disavowed and the discourse on ageing and its consequences cannot be associated solely with burdens and negativity. Indeed, older people constitute a huge unused labour pool, which is increasingly sought after by entrepreneurs. Skilful use of the potential of older people not only allows them to extend their working lives and protects them from marginalisation but also contributes to the country's economic growth and improved quality of life. Life experience, attachment to values, loyalty and dutifulness, commitment to their work, calmness and detachment from many issues make older people desirable employees. The state's actions for the 'silver economy' should be seen in terms of an investment, which in the long run will bring not only economic but also social benefits, especially since the state's security measures do not depend solely on military guarantees.
The optimal state for the state, which determines its survival and development, is to maintain a demographic balance that guarantees the natural replacement of generations. The ageing of the population can only be overcome by increasing the fertility rate, i.e. convincing families to have more children. However, procreation decisions ultimately depend on the individuals concerned. The state, of course, can and should encourage such decisions by creating conditions conducive to having numerous offspring through appropriately conducted family-friendly policies. A fundamental role in the process of reversing unfavourable demographic changes, and consequently strengthening the security of the state, is played by the family, which, being the basic cell of society, determines generational replacement. The aspiration to enter into intimate relationships leading to the establishment of a family results from the social nature of man, who needs another human being and social interaction in order to live fully. These two structures - family and society condition and interdepend on each other. The family ensures society's rebirth and continuance, while society provides families with optimal functioning conditions. Society is the substrate of the state, without which it cannot exist, and it determines its demographic potential. Halting and reversing unfavourable demographic trends requires well-considered, appropriately programmed, consistently implemented and long-term measures at many levels of the state's operation, including material support (easier access to housing, employment stabilisation, expansion of the network of crèches and kindergartens, decent family benefits and support for families with many children) and social support (emphasising the benefits of having children, shaping positive attitudes towards the family, creating a family-friendly living environment, enabling reconciliation of family and professional duties, support for parents who experience difficulties related to parenthood). Only through such measures will it be possible to overcome the process of population ageing, strengthen the population capital and, consequently, the security of the state.
[1] T. Searchinger, C. Hanson, R. Waite, B. Lipinski, G. Leeson, Achieving Replacement Level Fertility, World Resources Institute 2013, https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility, accessed 02.05.20225
[2] M. Bastiaans, V. Romaniello, Fertility and socioeconomic development: the role of education, life expectancy and GDP per capita, University Rotterdam 2016, https://www.eur.nl/sites/corporate/files/Mareen_Vittorio.pdf, accessed 02.05.
[3] B. Nichiporuk, The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors, Santa Monica 2000, https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1088.chap4.html, accessed 02.05.2025
[4] W. Lis, Protection of national and ethnic minorities in Polish law in the context of contemporary threats caused by migration movements, [in:] National Minorities. A securitological perspective, A. Urbanek (ed.), Krakow 2016, pp. 181-199
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